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Britain’s plan to leave the European Union continues to get messier and messier and although the political turmoil is not helping gold right now, analysts say it is not the time to ignore the precious metal’s safe-haven appeal. Not only is the U.K. government looking for a new Prime Minister after Theresa May resigned on Friday, but European Elections during the weekend saw the British Brexit Party, which was formed only six weeks ago, triumph, winning 31% of the vote and returning 29 MEPs to the parliament. The party is led by Nigel Farage, who favours leaving the EU without a deal. Some political analysts have noted that there is a growing possibility that the next Prime Minster could also favour leaving the EU without a deal. Because of holidays in the U.S. and the U.K., the gold market has not reacted to the European elections; however, ended a tumultuous week Friday with only a slight gain. According to some analysts, the gold market might have to see the threat of a full no-deal Brexit with ramifications for both the U.K and European economies to rally. “It’s puzzling why gold’s not getting much of a bid,” said Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale said in an email to Kitco News. “Maybe the realization of a no-deal Brexit will be the trigger.” In a recent interview with Kitco News, Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS, said that with the exit date pushed to Oct. 31 it difficult to tell how Brexit talks will impact gold prices in the near-term. However, he added that a hard-Brexit, with no deal, should be positive for the gold market. He also said that although gold isn’t reacting to the latest political tensions, that doesn’t mean that it is no longer a safe-haven asset. “Geopolitical tensions are ridiculously high and I don’t see any better investment than gold at the moment,” he said. Ryan McKay, commodity strategist at TD Securities, said in an interview with Kitco News Friday that a hard Brexit is a little more complicated for gold because of currency valuations. He added that a hard exit would be negative for the pound, which would boost the U.S. dollar and drag down the yellow metal. McKay said that gold could catch a bid if the geopolitical uncertainty hurts investor sentiment and economic growth expectations.
 
Posted on 28/05/2019 10:00:00 AM

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